WhyChina won't be Asia's dominant power

为何中国不会成为亚洲的主导力量
 
美国网友:主导亚洲—中国还不够格

China may be Asia's economic powerhouse butit won't become the region's dominant power, according to a new report.
"In examiningthe factors that go towards the development of Chinese national power-and itsability to use it to achieve national objectives-predictions about a Chinesesuperpower with the ability to dominate Asia would be premature,if not improbable," said Paul Dibb and John Lee, authors of thereport published by Australian think tank Kokoda Foundation.
The argument that China is already Asia'spre-eminent power based on its growing economic and military capacities isweak, the authors say. They expect the limitations of China's economic might, alack of close bilateral relationships and weak military capability to keep the country from becoming an advanced political-economythat wields influence in the region anytime soon.
"China is a dominant power,but it's not the dominant power in the region or the world. It's got theeconomic hardware in place... as a collective country, there'sno denying that it's an economic and military power," said VishnuVarathan, senior economist at Mizuho Bank.

中国或许是亚洲经济强国,但它未必会能成为地区主导力量,据一项新报告表示。
“据分析,中国正通过不断强大的国力去实现其国家目标,但猜测中国是否有能力去主导亚洲,现在还言之尚早,但并非不可能”。澳大利亚智库,科科达基金会,保罗迪布和约翰在公布的合著报告中表示。
该报告作者认为,随着经济的增长中国虽已在亚洲独占鳌头,但军事能力薄弱。他们认为中国有限的经济,脆弱的双边关系,薄弱的军事力量,对该国在此地区的政经影响力进一步提升,随时会产生阻碍。
“中国虽具有主导力量,但不具备主导地区或全球的实力。它拥有完备的经济硬件…作为一个集体国家,毫无疑问,它是个经济军事强国。”瑞穗银行高级经济学家Vishnu Varathan说到。

An unproductive economy
China's gross domestic product growth rateof 7 percent may be a five-year low, but it's still the envy of most countries.However, experts say declining productivity is one of biggest tell-tale signs that China cannot maintain itscurrent pace of growth.
"The capital-output ratio estimate for2012 was 5.5:1, meaning that a capital input of $5.50 achieves only $1 [ofoutput]. As economic logic insists, and the developmentexperiences of other East Asian countries show, capital-output ratios at thislevel depict an enormously wasteful and capital-inefficient economy that is notsustainable," said the report.
Other experts agree: "For amiddle-income country, capital productivity has dropped too much. Thisoccurred mainly in the past ten years, reflecting the efficiency problems on China's development path,"said Xiaolu Wang and Yixiao Zhou, authors of the 2014 academic paper 'DeepeningReform for China's Long-term Growth and Development.’
Furthermore, China will be unable to makethe jump from middle-income to high-income status - a requirement for adominant state- unless it improves the standard of living for citizens, thereport added.
Doing so would require the allocation ofmore government funds to public goods such as social security and unemploymentbenefits, as well as healthcare, which only constitute 10.5 percent and 6.1percent of the 2014 budget, respectively.

非生产型经济
中国7%GDP增长率或许是近5年来最低的,但仍令其他多数国家所羡慕。然而,专家们表示,生产率下降寓意着,中国如按目前的增长速度恐怕难以为继。
该报告表示,“2012年的资本产出比率估值为5.5:1,意味着(每)5.50美元的资金投入仅有1美元产出。如严格按照经济学逻辑,及其他东亚国家的发展经验表明,资本产出水平所体现出的是高投入(浪费投资)低效益,是不可持续的,”。
其他专家也认为:“对于一个中等收入国家来说,资本生产率降幅过大。在过去的十年中普遍存在这种情况,在中国发展道路上是该反省一下的这种效率问题了”《关于中国可持续增长及发展深化改革》作者,王晓路,周一小在著作中说到。
另外,中国未必能从中等收入跃升至高等收入状态——这是成为一个主导国家的先决条件,除非它能(再次)提高公民的生活标准,该报告补充说。
这需要政府向公共产业投入更多的资源,例如加大对社会保障和失业保险,同时还有医疗方面的投入,但在2014年的预算中(前两者)分别仅占10.5%和6.1%

 
WANG ZHAO | AFP | Getty Images

Exaggeratedmilitary power
The defense sector receives the lion'sshare of government finances, nearly 15 percent of the 2014 budget, but Dibband Lee believe China will not become a military superpower until it's capableof taking decisive action on a global scale.
"Although China has developed potentmilitary capabilities to make it hazardous for U.S. forces to operate in theapproaches to China, the fact remains that Beijing could not enforce a fullmilitary blockade of Taiwan or attempt a full-scale amphibious invasion of thatisland," they wrote.
As a result of territorial disputes withJapan and the majority of Southeast Asia, China has few friends in Asia. Areport from the Pew Research Centre earlier this year showed respondents infive out of eight Asian countries had overwhelmingly unfavorable views ofChina.
This unpopularity undermines Beijing'sinfluence and capacity to wield power in the region, Dibb and Lee said.
Mizuho'sVarathanagreed. "China doesn't have the charismatic soft power that Asia'sdominant power ought to have, it is still trying to gain friendships andinvestments in the region," he said.
 
被夸大的军事力量
国防部占了政府财政大头,几乎占掉了2014年预算的15%。但迪布和李认为,中国在具备全球行动能力之前它还不算是一个军事超级大国。
“虽然中国军事能力有了很大的发展,让美军在处理中国问题采取行动时有所顾忌,但事实上北京无法完全封锁住台湾岛,或没有进行全面两栖登陆夺岛的意愿”他们写道。
由于中国和日本及一些东南亚国家都有领土纠葛,中国在亚洲没几个朋友。今年初来自皮尤研究中心的一份报告显示,8个受访国家中其中有5个对中国持有负面看法。
这种负面看法大大削弱了北京的影响力,并制约了在该地区行使权力的能力,迪布和李说到。
瑞穗银行的Varathan认为。”中国并不具备主导亚洲所应有的令人着迷的软实力,他们应继续和周边努力搞好关系并加大投资力度”他说